Senior Researcher Amber Moore considers the long-term implications of Operation Venetic: whether it is something to celebrate or another Pyrrhic victory in an unwinnable global war on drugs. This blog post considers crime prevention, harm reduction and the potential dangers associated with the global drug supply chain. To ensure that this unprecedentedly extensive and costly operation has the most positive impact, it is vital to have processes in place to measure its effects on people who use drugs and the exacerbated dangers of the markets left behind.
Last week, French and Dutch law enforcement and judicial authorities presented the results of a joint investigation to dismantle EncroChat, an encrypted phone network advertised to professionals who value privacy, but in fact widely used by criminal networks. The infiltration of EncroChat has led to hundreds of arrests of top-tier criminals involved in drug trafficking, gun smuggling and murder. To date, £54 million has been seized in criminal cash along with 77 firearms and over two tonnes of cocaine. The UK National Crime Agency (NCA) worked with forces across Europe and say the operation, which lasted over three months, has had the biggest impact on organised crime gangs it has ever seen, leading to 746 UK arrests, including two law enforcement officers, the BBC News reports.
What is EncroChat?
EncroChat was part of the encrypted phone industry. Encrypted telephones are usually customised BlackBerries or Android phones that typically run a custom operating system with encrypted messaging apps installed and with the GPS, camera, and microphone functionality removed. They come with functions such as automatic deletion of messages and a panic wipe function, whereby all of the data on the device can be deleted by entering a four-digit code from the lock-screen, at a time of police arrest for example. Typically, the phones can only communicate with other devices sold by the same company (i.e. only between other EncroChat device holders). According to SkyNews a high proportion of users were involved in criminal activity with user hotspots particularly present in source and destination countries for cocaine and cannabis trade.
Operation Ventetic: the beginnings
Operation Venetic launched in April after analysts managed to infiltrate the service, giving police three months of real-time surveillance of EncroChat messages which came to an end on 13 June 2020, when the company realised that a public authority had penetrated the platform. EncroChat then sent a warning to all its users with the advice to immediately throw away the phones:
“[w]e can no longer guarantee the security of your device. We took immediate action on our network by disabling connectivity to combat the attack. You are advised to power off and physically dispose of your device immediately.”
The result is undoubtedly a huge international success and a great demonstration of international police work which should be celebrated. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick described it as a "game-changer," stating “We've known for ages that some organised criminals we have dealt with over the years but have never been able to bring to justice for the most serious offences have been turning to encrypted devices they thought were completely impenetrable,” as reported by SkyNews. Arresting those who have evaded the police for so long, sending serious shockwaves through the drug trafficking economy, is an unprecedented success for the policing of drugs indeed.
However, our prisons are full of drug dealers and drug traffickers and this has never reduced the size of the market (the demand for drugs) nor the supply of drugs to meet drug demand.
Will the infiltration and ultimate downfall of EncroChat be any different? In order to find out, follow-up intelligence must be gathered to evaluate the short-term and long-term impacts of Operation Venetic. This should include the impact on:
The supply of drugs on the ground. Intel already tells us that Cannabis is likely to be unaffected with most now grown and sold in the UK. With some major importers of cocaine arrested in the UK and other importers undoubtedly implicated in EncroChat, those importers (and perhaps more widely) are now fearful to move the drug. Those reliant on EncroChat can no longer communicate safely. However, there is still cocaine in the country so if the market manages to bounce back quickly (which it historically has done) supply issues may not be felt at the ground level by the people who ultimately consume them.
The prevalence and patterns of drug-use, paying particular attention to drug-related harms. If people who use drugs cannot get hold of a particular drug, they may simply move to a different drug not affected by supply issues. This could be problematic if people shift to other drugs that are more dangerous. More adulteration of drugs could also occur creating increased harms.
How the illicit market responds: the freelancer effect. Unfortunately, the outcome of police disruption of illicit drug markets is often an increase in violence rather than reduced drug supply or drug use. Large disruption such as this usually means new opportunities for rival or aspiring drug traffickers and new opportunities for rival encrypted phone companies as we have already seen confidently occur from EncroChat’s existing competitors. The ensuing violence after disrupting the illicit drug market, creating market opportunities to be fought over and thus making drug-related violence worse, is known as the freelancer effect - a known term within policing circles but apparently unevaluated. The Sun, Scotland has warned that ‘gangland hits’ are to be expected in the wake of the event.
Besides violence, the freelancer effect can result in price drops for drugs as new groups seek to capture the market with cheaper prices or ‘buy one get one free’ offers. It is therefore not uncommon for drug use to increase following a large drug bust. One of the reasons why an international network of law enforcement figures known as Law Enforcement Action Partnership (or LEAP) speak out in favour of evidence-based drug policy is because of the known freelancer effect and the escalation of violence it brings.
Measuring impact: what’s left behind a drug bust?
Beyond the range of social consequences arising from the probable freelancer effect, market sizing should also be calculated. The NCA says there were 60,000 users of Encrochat around the world, with 10,000 in the UK, and SkyNews believe that EncroChat was one of the largest providers of encrypted digital communication. However, without knowing what proportion were drug traffickers, nor the total size of the drug trafficking economy as a whole, we cannot put this figure into any meaningful context.
With EncroChat gone, does this mean this portion of the market has been gifted to those using a competitor encrypted phone service?
Another detail missing is how EncroChat was infiltrated in the first place - did it involve superior technical expertise that can be readily replicated to other encrypted phone services? Many are unconvinced, believing the operation could not have occurred without intel from either a paid informant or undercover officer leading to the successful compromise of a computer used to administer the service infrastructure for EncroChat. Success based on such intel or human error cannot readily be replicated.
Perhaps this is why EncroChat’s key competitor, OMERTA, seems unconcerned by the prospect, advertising directly to EncroChat's old customer base: “Did you narrowly escape the recent Mass Extinction Event? Celebrate with 10 percent off. Join the Omerta family and communicate with impunity” as reported by Vice. We have seen something similar play out before with the shutdown of the Silk Road, an online illicit market best known for selling illegal drugs. The online illicit market as a whole, often referred to as the “dark web” or “Darknet”, is thriving despite the celebrated success of the Silk Road platform being shut down in 2003. In 2016 a report by Europoll listed the Darknet as a significant threat which continues to expand.
By founding success solely on the basis of the numbers of arrests made and the amount of drugs seized alongside estimations of their expected ‘street value’ (no matter how impressive) gives a view of success independent of the wider implications discussed above. This has the effect of presenting the overall policy or strategy as effective. Several Government reports, including the most recent Carol Black report (February 2020) concluded that: “Government interventions to restrict supply [of drugs] have had limited success… Even if organisations [such as the NCA] were sufficiently resourced, it is not clear that they would be able to bring about sustained reduction in drug supply, given the resilience and flexibility of illicit drug markets.”
The CDPRG will support proper evaluation of the outcomes
The CDPRG advocates for intelligent and transparent impact evaluation to help inform the evolution of our strategies for drug control. If Operation Venetic does not lead to a change in drug use and supply for the greater good, especially during a time of unprecedented lockdown, limitations on international travel, and dramatic increases in stop and search due to Coronavirus, we must begin to implement evidence-based drug policies and no longer ignore the failures of prohibition. We require a commitment to an ongoing review of drug policy that puts into action the results from reports such as the Carol Black report whereby policy is implemented that goes beyond the temporary disruption of illicit drug markets and deals with the reality of drugs with clear indicators of success: reduced drug-related crime and drug-related harms to people who use drugs and society as a whole.
CONTEXT IS CRITICAL: WE SOUGHT EXPERT OPINIONS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND JUSTICE
Neil Woods, Chairman of Law Enforcement Action Partnership UK (LEAP UK), and author of Good Cop, Bad War: My Undercover Life Inside Britain’s Biggest Drug Gangs (2016) says:
“Police are highly skilled at catching drug dealers and the sophisticated work here is highly impressive. However, the size of the market has not been reduced at all. So what has essentially happened is that a huge opportunity has been created for rivals in this vast unregulated business. Police around the world take note of intelligence after such large operations and on each occasion witness the freelance effect; violence where opportunity is fought over. What is missing here is transparency. Police celebrate these raids, and it creates a news story. But the public are never informed of the downside, which leads them to believe that policy is working despite climbing violence, corruption and deaths from problematic drug use. Where is the evaluation? Where is the evidence that crime has been reduced? Because this is merely evidence of police activity. Disrupt a market and growth will follow, as the last few decades should have taught us.”
Chris Daw, QC, author of Justice on Trial: Radical Solutions for a System at Breaking Point (out on 23 July 2020) Lincoln’s Inn House Chambers, says:
Operation Venetic will take its course through the justice system and I make no comment on that specific case. However, massive intelligence-led raids, arrests and prosecutions are a common feature of the “War on Drugs”, which has been raging unsuccessfully for at least 49 years. In that time, drug use, drug overdoses and drug-related gang violence have escalated exponentially. The price for this hopeless war is paid in needless loss of life on a daily basis, including of many children and young people. Not one of these mass police actions, which come at a huge financial and personal cost, does anything to stem the flow of drugs onto the streets or to avoid a single tragic death. Beyond “getting tough” media headlines, the impact of drug prohibition is entirely negative. Higher street prices mean more profits for the criminal gangs, more violence and more drug-related crime by addicts. The time for change is now.